Tuesday, December 31, 2013

The Hidden Gem that slipped through the Re-Entry Draft

Regarding the Re-Entry draft, most picks were deemed necessary. San Jose added two new full-backs to replace Justin Morrow and Steven Beitashour(should he leave), DC selected two center-backs to replace Daniel Woolard and Dejan Jakovic(should he leave), and Portland selected Rodney Wallace's replacement for the start of the season. Out of the Re-Entry Draft's 68 number of players, 8 were in the top 150 of the Castrol Index. Only one of them went undrafted or untraded or unsigned: Daniel Woolard

Daniel Woolard's career had surged forward in 2011, and has started 20 games in each of the past three seasons. He started off as a center-back and was moved to a spot at left-back by DC United. It proved to be good decision, and he has been a mainstay ever since. Dennis Iapichino took his place after he was signed in August, leaving him expendable. Interestingly, in 2012, Alecko Eskandarian included him in an article about the 11 most underrated MLS players.

I decided to take a look at the Castrol Index, PAR stat and value of him over the last three years. I originally thought of the Castrol Index to be calculated in a similar fashion to the PAR stat. Only after looking at Woolard's ratings, however, I can see the massive gap.(I couldn't find his final rating for 2012, so I used the one from the Web Archive. It will be probably a few ratings off as the season was not over at the time of the cache. For the value, I used transfermarkt.



YearCastrolPARMinutesValue*
20111302332254100,000 
20121562721754125,000
20131412732235125,000

I'd see him fitting in at San Jose and New York very well. According to transfermarkt, he can play across the backline(I'm not sure he has played right-back before), and they have recently let go of back up left-back Justin Morrow and will also need center-back cover when their starting two center-backs will depart for Brazil in the summer. New York has recently gotten rid of defenders  David Carney, Heath Pearce and Brandon Barklage, and will likely cut Markus Holgersson soon. I'd hate to say Chivas USA would benefit from his presence as they would benefit from anybody's presence but they currently have a meager 4 defenders on their roster. So for the sake of comparison, here is the data for Morrow and Pearce:

Morrow:

YearCastrolPARMinutesValue*
2011291203810100,000
20121111552970125,000
20132193571937125,000

Pearce:

YearCastrolPARMinutesValue*
201180752581400,000
20121081372504400,000
20132522141083400,000

You can clearly see that both players are at about the same performance, with Woolard being the more consistent player, and at about $40,000 less salary than Morrow and 240,000 less than Pearce. Pearce's value has stayed the same for a long time but transfermarkt doesn't check the values for MLS players very often: the last time it changed was in 2009 and his value fell 600,000 in that year before he headed for MLS, so his value would be about the same as Woolard's.

*value in the tables is in British sterling
Note: I'm also interested in Ugo Ihemelu. If he would be healthy for the upcoming season, his combination of height and speed(for a center-back) would be worth taking a look at. In 2011, he was 13th in Castrol and 9th in PAR. There are also some young players with experience worth taking a look at. Tyler Polak is still on a GA deal and is only 21, Blair Gavin was formerly a GA and is still only 24, New England let go of Matt Horth, the 24-year old forward who had a .3673 goals per game average for the Atlanta Silverbacks in the NASL between 2011 and 2012, and Chivas gave away Marvin Iraheta, a 21 year-old defensive midfielder who has played two years professionally already.