Sunday, February 23, 2014

Trading scorecard of MLS teams

In the previous post, I mentioned that I would go in-depth about the anomalies behind the performance of MLS teams and their player recruitment scorecard - Superdraft and overseas combined. I think I have found why teams like Real Salt lake and San Jose have done so well even though they did not recruit that many quality players through Superdraft and overseas recruitment.

Let's take a look at the third source of player recruitment - trade, specially the trades that have resulted in the receiving team having a player in the top 100 PAR list from 2011 onwards. Both Real Salt Lake and San Jose Earthquake have managed to lure away 5 elite players from other teams! RSL's best trade is Kyle Beckerman from Colorado and Earthquake's best trade is Chris Wondolowski  from Houston! By comparison, Dallas has gained 3 players via trade and two of them have not made any contribution in last two years. They are sort of middle of the pack (11th in points earned last 3 seasons) even though their combined Superdraft and overseas recruitment scorecard is pretty good - 5 th.

TeamNumber of players recruited via trades who have made the
top 150 list at least  one of
the seasons 2011 or 2012 or 2013
Player (highest PAR position, best year) - year of trade
Chicago3Mike Magee (4, 2013)  - 2013
Dominic Oduro (19, 2011) - 2011
Dilly Duka (54, 2013) - 2013
Chivas3Juan Pablo Angel (41, 2011) - 2011
Nick LaBrocca (48, 2011) - 2011
Heath Pearce (75, 2011) - 2011
Colorado5Drew Moor (2, 2011) - 2009
Marvell Wynne (30, 2011) - 2010
Jeff Larentowicz (45, 2011) - 2010
Nathan Sturgis (61, 2013) - 2013
Matt Pickens (67, 2012) - 2009
Columbus2Dominic Oduro (23, 2013) - 2013
Eddie Gaven (47, 2011) - 2006
DC United2Dwayne DeRosario (26, 2011) - 2011
Maicon Santos (58, 2012) - 2012 
Dallas3Ugo Ihemelu (9, 2011) - 2009
Kevin Hartman (41, 2012) - 2010
Maicon Santos (53, 2011) - 2011
Houston4Bobby Boswell (6, 2011) - 2008
Macoumba Kandji (44, 2012) - 2012
Brad Davis (44, 2011) - 2005
Calen Carr (57, 2012) - 2011
LA Galaxy2Todd Dunivant (27, 2011) - 2009
Edson Buddle (96, 2012) - 2012
Montreal1Troy Perkins (54, 2012) - 2012
New England0
New York3Kenny Cooper (14, 2012) - 2012
Fabian Espindola (64, 2013) - 2013
Jamison Olave (68, 2013) - 2013
Philadelphia2Conor Casey (30, 2013) - 2013
Sebastien Le Toux (69, 2013) - 2012
Portland5Donovan Ricketts(1, 2013) - 2012
Ryan Johnson (24, 2013) - 2013
Rodney Wallace (60, 2013) - 2011
Will Johnson (65, 2013) - 2013
Jack Jewsbury (80, 2011) - 2011
Real Salt Lake5Nick Rimando (5, 2013) - 2006
Kyle Beckerman (50, 2013) - 2007
Will Johnson (59, 2011) - 2008
Robbie Findley (71, 2013) - 2007
Chris Wingert (98, 2011) - 2007
San Jose Earthquakes5Chris Wondolowski (2, 2012) - 2009
Steven Lenhart (4, 2012) - 2011
Alan Gordon (8, 2012) - 2011
Shea Salinas (52, 2013) - 2012
Marvin Chavez (100, 2012) - 2012
Seattle2Eddie Johnson (13, 2013) - 2012
Lamar Neagle (22, 2013) - 2013
Sporting Kansas City3Kei Kamara (6, 2012) - 2009
Ike Opara (35, 2013) - 2013
Benny Feilhaber (39, 2013) - 2013
Toronto2Ryan Johnson (39, 2012) - 2011
Milos Kocic (66, 2011) - 2010
Vancouver1Brad Knighton (57, 2013) - 2012


3 Year team performance and combined (Superdraft plus overseas) recruitment scorecard of MLS teams

First, here is a table I made to rank the overall team performance of all MLS teams over the last three years. Excluded Montreal since they joined only in 2012.

TeamPoints 2011+12+13Rank
Chicago43 + 57 + 49 = 1498
Chivas36 + 30 + 26 = 9217
Colorado49 + 37 + 51 = 13710
Columbus47 + 52 + 41 = 1409
DC United38 + 59 + 16 = 11316
Dallas52 + 39 + 44 = 13511
Houston49 + 53 + 51 = 1537
LA Galaxy67 + 54 + 53 = 1741
New England28 + 35 + 51 = 11415
New York46 + 57 + 59 = 1625
Philadelphia48 + 36 + 46 = 13013
Portland42 + 34 + 57 = 13312
Real Salt Lake53 + 57 + 56 = 1664
San Jose Earthquakes38 + 66 + 51 = 1556
Seattle63 + 56 + 52 = 1713
Sporting Kansas City51 + 63 + 58 =1722
Toronto33 + 23 + 29 = 8518
Vancouver28 + 43 + 48 =  11914

Next, I added the quality players (based on PAR rating) recruited from Drafts and overseas. I included players drafted via Superdraft and overseas since 2009, for Portland and Vancouver, since 2011. The first row in the table is of course no surprise - LA Galaxy has twice won MLS Cup in last 3 years and they managed to recruit 15 top quality players via Superdraft or overseas, including players like Omar Gonzalvez and Robbie Keane. In the top one third of the table, (1-6), there are couple of surprises though. Performance rank of Real Salt Lake is 4th, but their combined recruitment scorecard is 12th! Even stranger anomaly is 6th position holder San Jose Earthquakes, their combined recruitment score card is 17th of 18 teams, only recruited 6 quality players via Superdraft and from overseas clubs!

I will look at this anomaly at a future post.

TeamSuperdraft players + overseas recruits = TotalRank(Total)
1. LA Galaxy6 + 9  = 151-T
2. Sporting Kansas City6 + 6  = 127-T
3. Seattle2 + 12 = 143-T
4. Real Salt Lake3 + 6 = 912-T
5. New York4 + 11 = 151-T
6. San Jose Earthquakes4 + 2 = 617-T
7. Houston4 + 5 = 912-T
8. Chicago Fire4 + 6 = 109-T
9. Columbus3 + 6 = 912-T
10. Colorado3 + 3 = 617-T
11. Dallas4 + 9 = 135-T
12. Portland2 + 6 = 815
13. Philadelphia7 + 3 = 109-T
14. Vancouver2 + 10 = 127-T
15. New England9 + 5  = 143-T
16. DC United6 + 1 = 716
17. Chivas6 + 4 = 109-T
18. Toronto6 + 7  = 135-T

A lot of things stand out from this list. San Jose is in the top third but are tied for last in overall player recruits. Dallas is tied for fifth but is stuck in the second third and New England are tied for third but dwell in the bottom third. I'll address these issues in the next post.

Saturday, February 22, 2014

Overseas player recruitment scorecard of MLS teams

In my previous post about the Superdraft, I showed that some teams drafted better than others based on Superdrafts from 2010 to 2012. But, some teams like Seattle have done very well even though they did not find any gems in Superdrafts between 2010 to 2012; only one of their recruits (Alex Caskey) has played more than 1000 minutes in his first two years So why is that? There are multiple ways to acquire talent and now I'll take a look at another source - international players.

I'll take a look at another source of talent - overseas clubs. Most clubs have at least couple of their starters recruited internationally, mostly from CONCACAF countries or South American countries though rich clubs like LA and New York have recruited some of the top players from Europe.

Not all overseas recruits make an impact for their MLS clubs though, in fact less than half have done it. I have made a list of overseas players who have made to either  Castrol Index or PAR list in at least one of the years from 2011 to 2013. PAR list is not widely known, so let me tell a bit about it. It stands for Points Above Replacement and was created by Dave Laidig, and is modeled after baseball’s Wins Above Replacement  (WAR) stats. More details can be found at www.par-stat.com. I found that the list of names are mostly common but a few players who have played very well for few games but didn't play much did not make it to the Castrol Index list but made it to the PAR list. This is because Castrol Index gives high weight to number of minutes played. One example is Vancouver's Kekuta Manneh (recruited via Superdraft)

TeamNumber of overseas
recruits who has made the
top 150 list at least  one of
the seasons 2011 or 2012 or 2013
Three best overseas recruits
Chicago6Marco Pappa
Arne Friedrich
Alex
Chivas4Maicon Santos
Erick Torres
Michael Umana
Colorado3Hendry Thomas
Jaime Castrillon
Jamie Smith
Columbus6Federico Higuaín
Jairo Arrieta
Emilio Renteria
DC United1Hamdi Salihi 
Dallas9David Ferreira
Jair Benitez
Marvin Chavez
Houston5Oscar Boniek García
Jermaine Taylor
Lovel Palmer 
LA Galaxy9Robbie Keane
David Beckham
Juninho
Montreal6Marco Di Vaio
Felipe Martins
Alessandro Nesta
New England5Jose Gonçalves
Saer Sene
Jerry Bengtson
New York11Tim Cahill
Thierry Henry
Juan Pablo Angel
Philadelphia3Lionard Pajoy
Keon Daniel
Carlos Valdes
Portland6Diego Valeri
Pa-Modou Kah
Diego Chara
Real Salt Lake6Javier Morales
Fabian Espindola
Jamison Olave
San Jose Earthquakes2Victor Bernardez
Simon Dawkins
Seattle12Osvaldo Alonso
Mauro Rosales
Fredy Montero
Sporting Kansas City6Aurelien Collin
Jimmy Nielsen
Oriol Rosell 
Toronto7Danny Kovermans
Adrian Cann
Robert Earnshaw
Vancouver10Camilo
Gershon Koffie
Lee Young-Pyo

-One of the tools many MLS clubs utilize is agent Alejandro Taraciuk. Taracuik is a former MLS intern-turned-agent who helped establish Real Salt Lake's 2009 championship team by recommending Fabian Espindola, Javier Morales, and Jamison Olave. Taracuik pratically represents MLS in South America; he also brought Jorge Perlaza, Diego Chara, and Diego Valeri to Portland as well as Fredy Montero and Jhon Kennedy Hurtado to Seattle. Taraciuk also said, "I have been responsible for bringing approximately 70 players to the league and without doubt Diego Valeri is one of the best players I have placed in MLS." It would be interesting to find the role of agents in international players coming in. Teams also seem to focus around certain regions like Montreal in Italy.

-It is worth noting that there is no direct co-relation between recruiting quality players from overseas clubs and success in MLS. Dallas has recruited 9 international players and  Vancouver has 10 players who have been starters for them, still they had far less success than San Jose, who have just two significant overseas recruits during the same period - and Simon Dawkins of them was on loan from parent club Tottenham. So really they just have Victor Bernardez to show for.

So, there are more ways to assemble a good team, than drafting and overseas scouting. I'll cover it in a future post.