Monday, June 29, 2015

What Wins Games (Part 1)

In the last possession article, I concluded that possession is pointless although there was a small sample size. Recently, I built a scraper to scrape the match stats from every MLS match this season. The results point towards the same conclusion.



Possession
Win % with 55% or more possession27.03%
Win % with 45% or less possession41.67%

So if not possession, they what? Shot Dominance, the ratio of a team's shots to its opponents' shots and Shots on Target Ratio, the ratio of a teams shots on target to the total shots on target are also tools used to evaluate match outcomes. The results of the tests of these two metrics are below



Possession
Win % with 2.5X or more shot dominance58.33%
Win % with .4x or less shot dominance21.43%



Possession
Win % with .75 or more STR70.59%
Win % with .25 or less STR7.89%

In conclusion, STR is the best predictive metric available readily on MLS Match Reports.

Analyzing the Amarikwa-Harden trade

Recently, San Jose and Chicago exchanged Ty Harden and Quincy Amarikwa, which looks to be a good deal for both sides. In every trade, there does not have to be a direct winner and loser: on the surface, Chicago recieved center back depth while San Jose acquired a starting forward. And salary wise, both are on the cheap: Amarikwa earned $60,000 guaranteed in 2014; Harden, $71,665.

First, the Whoscored and Squawka Indexes:


Harden(W)Harden(S)Amarikwa(W)Amarikwa(S)Adailton(W)Adailton(S)Jahn(W)Jahn(S)
20156.94736.56566.811756.59-41
20146.682117.02256----5.86-56
20136.98756.48110----6.60122

Harden seems like he is around Adailton's level. Amarikwa seems to be an inconsistent performer, playing excellent in 2014 but okay in 2013 and 2015. However, he seems better Jahn. Jahn twice achieved negative ratings and is only slightly ahead of Amarikwa this year. Amarikwa will eventually start performing better and Jahn worse as they regress towards the mean.

Another tool for player evaluation is radars, pioneered by Ted Knutson. Here are this season's comparisons for the Amarikwa and Jahn below:

Amarikwa in Red, Jahn in Blue


The radars paint a wholesome picture. Amarikwa is better in passing and dribbling, having more key passes and a higher passing accuracy. However, Jahn contributes more defensively, and is dispossessed less. But since both seem to be having off years, here is the comparison for their best years (2014 for Amarikwa, 2013 for Jahn)
2014 Amarikwa in Red, 2013 Jahn in Blue
The same trends hold true: Jahn with good defensive work and ball control and Amarikwa with better passing. Note that Jahn played less than half of the minutes Amarikwa played - 1001 vs 2550.