Wednesday, January 15, 2014

Reality check on the MLS Superdraft

In the last couple of weeks MLS web sites have been buzzing with Superdraft related material - and for good reason, the big day is just around the corner on the 16th. Instead of joining the bandwagon and starting the speculation of who will be drafted by which team and whose stock is rising or falling, I asked myself the question how much Superdraft really means to the MLS teams.

First, let me explain my methodology.

I made a list of top 100 players who are the "elite" class of players from 2013 using the Castrol Index; I picked 100 players since that represents approximately top 20% - MLS now has about 500 players among its 19 teams. The coaches would like to get their entire first eleven from these two groups, but only MLS Champion Kansas City managed to do this. Most teams had 4 to 6.

The Superdraft is not the only source of recruitment for MLS clubs. Clubs often recruit from overseas, which  includes Europe, South America and other CONCACAF countries. MLS teams also hold try-outs, and use their academies to develop "home grown" players. They also recruit players from the lower tiers of North American soccer, like the NASL and USL. MLS also recruits American players playing abroad and allocates them to a team via their allocation process.

What I found interesting is that Superdraft brought only 41 of 100 elite players to MLS, but remember these players were recruited over a span of 14 years from 2000 to 2013, so on average each year's super draft brought only about three future stars to MLS. Overseas players recruited 34 out of 100, is the next major source. All other sources roughly contributed one fourth.

So, what does this tell us ?

First, Superdraft is not the only definitely source of recruiting quality players; overseas may be more expensive and the players may take more time to adapt to MLS' physical style of play, but that is the distance between the playoff teams and non-playoff teams(You can see that Real Salt Lake got a head start in 2007 and 2008 by signing Fabian Espindola, Javier Morales, and Jamison Olave long before the explosion of talent in 2011 ans 2012). Second, not too many star players join via Superdraft every year, may be about three to five. So, don't get carried away by the buzz generated around 30+ players, most of whom will be forgotten soon.

Anyways, let me give you some good news, especially if your team doesn't have a high draft pick. Only half of the elite players were not top 10 drafts, and lot of players picked up from 11 to 30 became future MLS stars. Of course, if your favorite team's coach has real eye for diamond in the rough (or just lucky) can still spot another future Chris Wondolowski pick 89.

Top 100 players sorted by Castrol Index rank:

*Year is when the player joined MLS
PlayerYearSource of Recruitment
Donovan Ricketts2009Overseas Club
Marco Di Vaio2012Overseas Club
Mike Magee2003Draft pick #3
Robbie Keane2011Overseas Club
Chris Wondolowski2005Draft pick #89
Jack McInerney2010Draft pick #7
Nick Rimando2000Draft pick #35
Blas Pérez2012Overseas Club
Eddie Johnson 2001Draft pick #19
Graham Zusi   2009Draft pick #23
Diego Fagundez   2011Homegrown
Camilo Sanvezzo2011Overseas Club
Tim Cahill2012Overseas Club
Lamar Neagle 2009Trialist
Ryan Johnson 2006Draft pick #26
Thierry Henry 2010Overseas Club
Luis Robles 2012MLS Allocation
Will Bruin  2011Draft pick #11
Drew Moor2005Draft pick #6
Giles Barnes 2012Overseas Club
José Gonçalves2013Overseas Club
Dominic Oduro2006Draft pick #22
Jon Busch 2002Draft pick #23
Diego Valeri2013Overseas Club
Conor Casey2007MLS Allocation
Zac MacMath2011Draft pick #5
Shea Salinas2008Draft pick #15
Aurélien Collin2011Overseas Club
Marcelo Sarvas2012Overseas Club
Benny Feilhaber  2011MLS Allocation
Federico Higuaín2012Overseas Club
Brad Davis2002Draft pick #3
Nathan Sturgis2006Draft pick #12
Rodney Wallace2009Draft pick #6
Kyle Beckerman2000MLS Allocation
Chad Marshall2004Draft pick #2
Matt Besler2009Draft pick #8
Clinton Irwin2013USL
Javier Morales2007Overseas Club
Dilly Duka2010Draft pick #8
George John2009Draft pick #14
Deshorn Brown2013Draft pick #6
Omar González2009Draft pick #3
Sebastien Le Toux2009USL
Jamison Olave 2008Overseas Club
Erick Torres2013Overseas Club
Kenny Miller2012Overseas Club
Fabian Espindola2007Overseas Club
Landon Donovan2001MLS Allocation
Juninho2010Overseas Club
Amobi Okugo2010Draft pick #6
Patrick Nyarko2008Draft pick #7
Chance Myers2008Draft pick #1
Bernardo Anor2011Draft pick #48
Ike Opara2010Draft pick #3
Claudio Bieler2013Overseas Club
Matt Hedges2012Draft pick #11
Gyasi Zardes2013Homegrown
Pa-Modou Kah2013Overseas Club
Jairo Arrieta2012Overseas Club
Will Johnson2005Trialist
Michael Gspurning2012Overseas Club
Dan Kennedy2005Draft pick #38
Dillon Powers2013Draft pick #11
Stephen McCarthy2011Draft pick #24
Todd Dunivant2003Draft pick #6
Oscar Boniek García2012Overseas Club
Robert Earnshaw2013Overseas Club
A.J. DeLaGarza2009Draft pick #17
Oriol Rosell2013Overseas Club
Sheanon Williams2010USL
Warren Creavalle2012Draft pick #37
Josh Williams2010Trialist
Bobby Shuttleworth2009Trialist
Darlington Nagbe2011Draft pick #2
Michael Farfan2011Draft pick #23
Steven Caldwell2013Overseas Club
Kelyn Rowe2012Draft pick #3
Obafemi Martins2013Overseas Club
Soony Saad2011MLS Allocation
Jimmy Nielsen2010Overseas Club
Tally Hall2009Recruited by Club
Doneil Henry2010Homegrown
Justin Mapp2002Draft pick #4
Seth Sinovic2010Draft pick #25
Diego Chara2011Overseas Club
Jonathan Osorio2012Trialist
Osvaldo Alonso2009Overseas Club
Victor Bernardez2012Overseas Club
Djimi Traore2013Overseas Club
Lee Nguyen2012MLS Allocation
Andrew Jacobson2009MLS Allocation
Alvaro Saborio2010Overseas Club
Ricardo Clark2003Draft pick #2
Jeff Larentowicz2005Draft pick #45
Kenny Cooper2006Recruited by Club
Bobby Boswell2005Trialist
Andrew Driver2013Overseas Club
DeAndre Yedlin2013Homegrown
Troy Perkins2003Trialist

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