Saturday, March 15, 2014

Thousand minute rule explained

While commenting on MLS Superdraft, I mentioned that almost all future stars of MLS played at least 1000 minutes in their first two seasons. The only notable exceptions are Chris Wondolowski and a handful of goalkeepers - who anyway are usually late bloomers. I got the idea that such a rule might exist from Malcom Gladwell's book Outliers - The story of success. The second chapter of the book "10,000 hour rule" tells us that in any field, from music to ice hockey to computer programming, there are no "natural"s, most successful people have actually practiced much harder to their peers during their formative years. Here is a look at the number of minutes played for drafted players who later became successful in MLS, using the top 100 Castrol Index for 2013 as the success criteria.

Player Castrol Index rank Year of joining MLS
Number of minutes played in first two seasons
Mike Magee             3 (2003) - 3238
Chris Wondolowski             5 (2005) - 203
Jack McInerney             6 (2010) - 1026
Nick Rimando             7 (2000) - 4302
Eddie Johnson             9 (2001) - 611    (Started at age of 17)
Graham Zusi            10 (2009) - 1064
Ryan Johnson            15 (2006 + 2008) - 1733  (Did not play in 2007)
Will Bruin           18 (2011) - 4731
Drew Moor           19 (2005) - 3433
Dominic Oduro           22 (2006) - 1638
John Busch           23 (2002) -  3900
Zac MacMath           26 (2011) - 3555
Shea Salinas           27 (2008) - 1850
Brad Davis           32 (2002) - 3154
Nathan Sturgis           33 (2006) - 2393
Rodney Wallace           34 (2009) -  3189
Chad Marshall           36 (2004) - 5101
Matt Besler           37 (2009) -  3252
Dilly Duka           40 (2010) - 1624
George John           41 (2009) -  3600
Deshorn Brown           42 (2013) - 2169 (only first year)
Omar González           43 (2009) -  5851
Amobi Okugo           51 (2010) - 1248
Patrick Nyarko           52 (2008) -  2254
Chance Myers           53 (2008) -  846   (Had an injury in second year)
Bernardo Anor           54 (2011) - 1133
Ike Opara           55 (2010) - 1399
Matt Hedges           57 (2012) - 4815
Dan Kennedy           63 (2008 + 2010) - 1293  (Did not play in 2009)
Dillon Powers           64 (2013) - 2457 (only first year)
Stephen McCarthy           65 (2011) - 3746
Todd Dunivant           66 (2003) -  4258
A.J. DeLaGarza           69 (2009) -  3482
Warren Creavalle           72 (2012) -  2504
Darlington Nagbe           75 (2011) -  4428
Michael Farfan           76 (2011) -  4262
Kelyn Rowe           78 (2012) - 4630
Justin Mapp           84 (2002) -  1476
Seth Sinovic           85 (2010) -  3582
Ricardo Clark           94 (2003) -  4355
Jeff Larentowicz           95 (2005) -  1975

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